The statement given by the Taliban’s deputy Hamidullah Fitrat that Afghan soil won’t be used for terror against Pakistan is yet another effort by Kabul to reduce Islamabad’s security concerns. While such statements are diplomatically significant, however, ground realities should be kept in mind where the Tehreek-i-Taliban continues to operate from Afghan territory under protection.
THE DISCONTENT BETWEEN RHETORIC AND REALITY:
Pakistan’s concerns are rooted in its long history of cross-border militancy. Since the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021, they have repeatedly assured Pakistan still Islamabad has faced a resurgence in TTP attacks, specifically in KPK and Balochistan. According to the Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies, there has been a hike in TTP-affiliated terror attacks in the past two years. Afghan Taliban and TTP have a complex relationship despite the public denials; both share historical and ideological ties. Both groups share Deobandi roots along with familial and tribal bonds across the Durand line. This makes counterterrorism cooperation a difficult task.
THE NEED FOR VERIFIABLE ACTIONS:
There is a need to convert goodwill into robust actions to normalize relations. There should not be only public commitments or statements, but a strict action to eliminate the TTP threat. According to UNSC reports and independent security analysts Talibans works freely in Afghanistan, such as engaging in fundraising, recruitment, and propaganda without any significant interference.
The Afghan Talibans are reluctant to confront the TTP mainly due to two factors. First, internal division targeting TTP could lead to dissent within the Taliban. Second, is Taliban encounter many challenges in governance, and they may see the Taliban as a tool for negotiations with Pakistan. Which means dealing with TTP is not easy.
REGIONAL STAKES:
The stakes in Pak-Afghan relations are far beyond bilateral diplomacy. Regional stability and economic prosperity are embodied in projects like the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline and CASA-1000 electricity transmission lines; however, due to repeated security concerns, these projects have been delayed, which shows a direct link between counter-terrorism cooperation and regional development. Trade is another important dimension. Afghanistan is dependent on Pakistan to reach global markets; however, groups like the TTP hurt economic prosperity and regional stability.
THE REFUGEE FACTOR:
Pakistan hosts over a million refugees, many of whom are undocumented, which is a strategic leverage for Kabul, also a humanitarian crisis. Pakistan has threatened with mass deportations due to security concerns; however, in return faces backlash, which further strains bilateral relations.
CONCLUSION:
While the Afghan Taliban’s assurance to Pakistan is a positive step but they still lack verifiable action against TTP. Strong relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan require a robust mechanism to counter cross-border militancy and promote peace and economic prosperity in the region. Lasting peace depends upon Afghanistan’s ability to tackle these threats; otherwise, diplomatic efforts are of no use and are overshadowed by mutual mistrust.
