The South Asian geopolitical landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, marked by both diplomatic initiatives and escalating tensions. China’s role in the recent India-Pakistan conflict has been notable, with Pakistan utilizing Chinese weaponry and receiving strong diplomatic backing from Beijing, underscoring the strength of the Pak-China friendship. This backdrop of heightened tension forms the context for other significant regional developments.
A key diplomatic event was the trilateral meeting held in Kabul on May 10, 2025. Pakistan’s Special Representative for Afghanistan, Ambassador Mohammad Sadiq, China’s Special Envoy Yue Xiaoyong, and Afghanistan’s acting Foreign Minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, convened to discuss the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), security cooperation, and broader economic linkages. This inaugural trilateral dialogue under the current Afghan regime, hosted in Kabul, signals China’s increasing willingness to engage directly with the Taliban-led government and to act as a facilitator between Pakistan and Afghanistan. A mutual agreement was reached to hold another trilateral meeting in June.
A central achievement of the Kabul meeting was the consensus among the three nations to strengthen regional stability through enhanced economic and security cooperation. This agreement reflects their shared interest in tackling terrorism, cross-border threats, and regional economic challenges. Discussions also focused on promoting trade relations and economic synergy, exploring avenues for increased trade flows, improved connectivity, and the creation of economic opportunities. Afghanistan’s strategically important geographical location as a transit corridor linking Central and South Asia was duly acknowledged. On the security front, the dialogue emphasized the necessity of joint efforts to combat terrorism, drug trafficking, and cross-border crime.
Following the Kabul meeting, Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Ishaq Dar, is scheduled to officially visit China from May 19-21 at the invitation of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Simultaneously, Afghanistan’s Acting Foreign Minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, is also expected in China around May 20 for a trilateral meeting. This closely timed sequence suggests a coordinated diplomatic strategy orchestrated by China, potentially marking a continuation of its efforts to foster rapprochement between Pakistan and Afghanistan. During his visit, Ishaq Dar will likely discuss the regional situation, particularly the recent conflict with India, and review bilateral relations with Wang Yi, building on previous engagements. Amir Khan Muttaqi’s bilateral engagements will likely center on strengthening political and economic ties, including the extension of the BRI and Chinese investments, further solidifying the trilateral cooperation initiated by China.
China’s efforts to improve historically difficult relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan are notable, building on prior mediation attempts. Beijing’s interest in regional stability stems from its need to protect Belt and Road Initiative investments, especially the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, counter threats like the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, and increase its regional influence. Moreover, China has consistently offered strong diplomatic support to Pakistan during the recent conflict with India, reiterating its commitment to Pakistan’s sovereignty.
Closer ties between China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan offer considerable advantages. For China, this translates to enhanced regional influence, increased international standing, BRI expansion, and improved border security. For Pakistan, it ensures continued strategic support from China, facilitates trade and access to Central Asia, and solidifies its role within the BRI framework. For Afghanistan, the benefits include enhanced regional connectivity, potential international legitimacy, increased economic engagement, and security cooperation.
The increasing cooperation between Pakistan, China, and Afghanistan appears to be aimed at counterbalancing India’s influence in the region. The Afghan government faced criticism for allegedly leaning towards India, further fueling these dynamics. This diplomatic maneuvering suggests the formation of regional alignments in the context of the competition between India and the Pakistan-China axis.
Adding another layer of complexity is the apparent cooling of relations between India and Bangladesh. This shift could be attributed to internal political changes within Bangladesh and evolving economic considerations, potentially including trade restrictions imposed by India and Bangladesh’s growing ties with both China and Pakistan. This indicates a less exclusively India-centric foreign policy from Dhaka.
In conclusion, the recent diplomatic engagements signify growing trilateral cooperation with a strong focus on the BRI and regional security. These developments are unfolding against a backdrop of India-Pakistan tensions, criticism of India-Afghanistan relations, and a noticeable shift in Bangladesh’s foreign policy. China is playing a pivotal role, seeking regional stability and increased influence. While this cooperation could potentially enhance stability in certain areas, it can push India into regional diplomatic isolation, leading to a more polarized region. Trade and economic integration are likely to increase, with Pakistan gaining enhanced access to Central Asia and Afghanistan benefiting from Chinese investments. However, this could have implications for India’s regional interests, suggesting a significant reshaping of the geopolitical balance in South and Central Asia.
